"A HARD RAIN'S A-GONNA FALL"

LIFE DURING WARTIME - Installment #13 - Being dispatches from the ground in Tel Aviv, from a New Yorker making Aliyah to Israel in late 2024.

Tel Aviv, June 13-21, 2025

A NEW WAR BEGUN

As of today, the "Gaza War" a.k.a. "October 7, 2023" a.k.a. "The 10/7 War" has a new name, and is indeed a new war, The Israeli-Iran War of 2025... now 9 days old.

Until the Israeli hostages in Gaza's tunnels have been freed, and until Hamas surrenders unconditionally and leaves its Gaza enclave for good, the "10/7 Gaza War" continues. But is the Israel-Iran War simply the Gaza War's coda or continuation? Or is it something new? It doesn't matter, it's a continuum, and we're fighting the same enemy.

If there is regime change in Iran (something unthinkable once—however dreamed of—for the last 35-45 years), will the Gaza War end soon thereafter? Will peace break out across the Mideast for the first time since Zionism got rolling in 1882? Or will this War with Iran continue indefinitely, with more missiles, and more Israeli casualties and sacrifices, until TRUMP decides to join the fight, which he seems to be resisting, unless he's concocting another strategem, another deception of Iran?

In these last 9 days, 24 Israelis have been killed, and more than 600 have been wounded to various degrees, with a major hospital in the Negev and a major science research center (the Weizmann Institute) having been destroyed since two Fridays (the day Iran first attacked Israel, but the day after the Israel-Iran War began the Thursday before). Prior to the War's ingenious commencement ("ingenious" with regards to Israel's head-fake of a start to the War), THE fear about Iran was that, if provoked, then Israel might well be quickly incinerated by a nuclear attack.

What a difference a week makes. And yet, by all reports, Iran was this close to firing off a ballistic toward Tel Aviv carrying nuclear warheads, and was stopped... a mere week before the "BOMB" was ready in Tehran.... Many in Israel's military establishment are saying this could have all gone so wrong if Israel had, indeed, waited another week to attack.

Netanyahu pretended in the press that his son was getting married, and Trump pretended to be angry at Israel when the opposite was true. Thus were the Ayatollahs lulled into thinking that no attack from Israel was imminent... and thus did 200 Israel jets, eight days ago, practically obliterate all of Iran's air defenses in a single day, leaving the skies above Tehran open to Israeli control.

Dozens of top Iranian military leaders were also assasinated by Day Two, along with well over a dozen of the Shi'ite nation's top nuclear scientists. Iran was indeed shocked and awed—and scared shitless. Supreme Leader Khameinei has apparently sunken into a state of enfeeblement and fear, with most of his lieutenants now in the ground. And while (until yesterday) a truly massive barrage of Iran's once-mighty collection of rockets was fired on Israel's civilians and apartment buildings for five straight, terrifying days... by the sixth day those 100-200 rockets per day had quickly become a mere 8-10 per sally. And 2 days ago, there were no missiles fired at all (yes, but yesterday there were two more terrifying missile attacks....) Could it be true that Israeli fighter jets have destroyed most of Iran's rocket launchers (whether stationary or on trucks), leaving a huge stockpile of these evil ballistics sitting, collecting dust now, in the tunnels of Tehran's suburbs? ... Or does Iran still have almost 2000 more, as well as the capacity to fire them? Is this a war soon reaching victory and surrender by Iran? Or is it a quaqmire...? At least until TRUMP 'jumps in?’

During the first 6 days of Iranian "hard rain" (as well as the last 2 days), my fellow Israeli citizens and I have had to run to bomb shelters as the sirens have rung, roughly 2-3 times a day, since last Friday June 14. And despite the fact that about 10% of Iranian missiles have penetrated Israeli shoot-'em-outa-the-sky defenses, most of us have (mostlly) felt safe getting to the shelters with minutes to spare, and with a sense of safety (though Israel is, however, rumored to be running out of "Arrow Interceptors" and will need some of America's... to destroy incoming ballistics in a little over a week, per the news).

The increasing odds, though, of probable victory by the Jewish state in, again, this Israel-Iran War of June 2025, and said victory's implications for the future of the world, let alone of the entire Mideast—along with reports of the growing admiration for Israel from most of Europe, the entire EU, much of the Western world and half the nations of Arab population, for what Israel has just done or is still doing on behalf of the whole planet by defanging/decimating Iran—is not only making TRUMP jealous, but is also embodying a 180 degree reversal from the (just 10 days ago?) misguided, misinformed, near-universal worldwide hatred for Israel since the Gaza war began in October 2023... And this War, by its end, will certainly be remembered as one of the most important military victories for the 'forces of good' of this young century (let alone of the now-over-140-year-long Arab/Iranian-Israeli conflict). Yes, I'm optimistic despite the up-and-down news, because while it comes with a price, a sacrifice again of Israeli lives, THIS time it feels like we will fight... until we win.

A hard rain has indeed been falling the last 9 days. But for the most part it is not Bob Dylan's prophecy of nuclear holocaust (which the Nobel laureate made, in song lyrics, back in 1962) that obtains. Instead it is the rogue Shi'ite Iranian Islamic government that daily seems to be without an umbrella that would protect it from Israeli military attack from the sky. Despite its stockpile that is increasingly becoming useless... and its nuclear enrichment plant buried in a mountain in "FORDOW," near Qom.

IN ISRAEL, 24 DEAD as of this WRITING, THE COUNTRY STILL ON LOCKDOWN

Living in Israel during the War has reminded many of us ways of the first months of COVID in 2020. The airports and skies are closed to all, with no flights out if you're an Israeli. Yet, again, despite the hard rain daily of Iranian missiles, all news reports say we are winning the War. You need look no further than—as Israel piles on victory after victory—how TRUMP now wants to get some of the credit... and in the last week (while vacillating some), he's changed his tune from extreme caution, to wanting probably the US to join the fight.

In Tel Aviv, the streets are often empty by early evening (when Iran starts getting ready), and the groceries were cleared out 6 days ago, though they're all re-stocked now. As soon as Israel's first, pre-emptive strike with 200 jets on Iran's nuclear infrastructure 7 mornings ago, all of us were alerted (on Day One) that groceries and 'delivery restaurants' would be open for an additional 3-4 hour window that first afternoon, allowing everyone in town to get as much food and water into their apartments as quickly as possible. (Now, just days later, shopping is almost back to normal.)

Nevertheless, a 'War lockdown' has meant, at times, confining one's diet to sardines, bananas, and as little milk as possible, just in case....

The question of an actual nuclear attack by Iran now seems, as opposed to half a week ago, not in the narrative. While Iran could have nuked Israel by now (and, again, apparently was a mere week or so away from doing so when Israel first attacked on them on June 13), there now have been so many pre-emptive strikes by Israel on everything throughout Iran, that a 2nd Holocaust seems unlikely, per news reports. Israel has taken out over 50% of Iran's ballistic missile launchers, destroyed their air defense radar systems completely, and now "controls the skies over Iran," meaning Israeli fighter jets are targeting all kinds of valuable targets literally at will, without danger. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameinei's top echelon of military commanders, weaponry experts, Revolutionary Guards, and nuclear scientist personnel have all been singled out and assassinated in a stunning half-a-week of targeted killings. And these killings have been continuing, with 5 car bombs—each containing a nuclear scientist—blowing up simultaneously across the breadth of Tehran in another stunning Mossad operation just 3 days ago.

"ISRAEL IS LEADING THE WEST" shouts a headline in The Jerusalem Post yesterday. "Israel has shown that it is willing to stand alone when necessary, leading the path with conviction, even when lambasted, and ultimately reshape the world for the better."

That this is a headline is a bit Alice in Wonderland for some of us, and the article continues: "For 20 months Israel has exmplified this principle [of leadership:] standing as the West's resolute bastion against the forces of radical Islam—whether the Khomeinist ideology of Iran's mullahs or the Muslim Brotherhood's murderousness [Hamas in Gaza]."

Another article in a competing Israeli newspaper here trumpets the chest-filling headline "HOW ISRAEL SHOWED THE WORLD IT IS STILL JUST AS MIGHTY AND CAPABLE AS IT ONCE WAS." That article goes on to say, that despite the humiliation of October 7, "Israel shows that when survival is on the line, she acts decisively, with overwhelming might, surgical precision, and unwavering determination."

And then, not surprisingly, my phone just buzzed with a notification that "Israeli stocks were surging" on news of the victories on the battlefield. And 100,000 Israelis, stranded abroad when the war began, are now swiftly being brought back home—most recently on a ferry boat from Cyprus rented by El Al Airlines... for free.

And then of course there's this: an incredible monologue (transcribed below) was just published on Facebook and Instagram featuring a young man walking and talking into the camera. I was so astonished by this clip that I felt compelled to transcribe it for you here. Its contents have probably been paraphrased elsewhere or before... but not with such breathtaking clarity: and it serves as prelude to everything else that will follow in (and end) this piece:

ZACH ROSS, on Facebook/Instagram

WHY ANTISEMITISM IS NOT THE ISSUE ANYMORE

"Our primary job as Jews is not to fight antisemitism: it's to live as Jews. Antisemitism is not a Jewish problem: it's a societal illness. So the burden of curing it lies with society, not with us.

"The more we try to prove our humanity or beg to be understood, the more we reenforce the lie that we're on trial. We are not on trial. Because the trial is rigged with a predetermined verdict that we're guilty, as it has been for 2000 years. To try to defend ourselves in such a spectacle is to legitimize a lie. Our mission isn't to explain our right to exist either. It's to exist: proudly, not in reaction to hatred, but in affirmation of who we are.

"Our power lies in embracing our light: in loving our people, our heritage, our land and ourselves more deeply than the world can hate us. As a result, antisemitism diminishes, but not because we resist it, but because we outshine it: by deepening our understanding of who we are, where we come from, and refusing to be defined by our enemies.

"For those who haven't caught up yet, and some Jews sadly haven't (we know who they are), Zionism shattered the precedent of Jews constantly needing to prove our humanity to a world that, lost in its own moral failings, needed a scapegoat. Today, we are fighting for the right to say "We don't care if you don't love us, we don't need you to.

"But: if you come to kill us, or rape our sisters, or kidnap our children, it is not us who are on trial to prove our innocence when we defend ourselves. It's you. And in the memory of our ancestors who were also deemed collectively guilty in their generation, and sacrificed for crimes they did not commit, we will always—always—make sure that justice is served. Am Yisrael Chai." —Zach Ross, 2025

It turns out that this young 30-something Jew, walking through a field and talking to the camera, speaking the words above, is (obviously) one Zach Ross. He's on Instagram as Zicksworld, and he is on this platform (Substack) for a $6/month subscription, which I just joined. His social may have other amazing monologues like the above; and I'm about to dig into his Substack articles as well as soon as I publish today.

For now, as—yes, another barrage of ballistics from Iran just yesterday AND last night(Friday-Saturday, the 20th-21st) sent all of us to the shelters... again ["The largest salvo against the country since hostilities began over a week ago" says "YNET NEWS"] .... I can think of no better balm than to listen to Zach Ross while being forced to remain in lockdown in Tel Aviv at this moment of time—when the IDF and Mossad and all the other components of the Israeli machine are showing brilliance (nay, genius), courage, and (let it be said) world-beating unassailability.

HARD RAIN

There's nothing else for me to say right now: events are moving too fast, and I don't want to report 'old news'. It's time to close out my reporting for today: the news will be so different in a week, I shold stop now, in order to report anew in 7 days.

Let me close, though, with a short brief on our most frequently designated contemporary prophet in the nuclear war context: Nobel Laureate Bob Dylan (yes he's still alive and still performing), widely acknowledged to be... many things: the greatest songwriter, the greatest prophet—perhaps one of the greatest artists in any medium—of the last century (I say "nuclear war context" only to keep to the point).

On December 6, 1962, he recorded his nearly-8-minute song "A Hard Rain's A-Gonna Fall" for Columbia Records—released to the public 5+ months later on his second LP, when he was near-exactly 22 years old.

The song was recorded 40 days after the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 16-28, 1962, but was actually first performed in public at Carnegie Hall only 3 weeks before said "Crisis" commenced. Prophecy or commentary? Clearly the latter. Though a widely-read interview with Studs Terkel altered the reported reality that Dylan had written the apocalyptic song after (in perfect response to) the fearful events that the whole world was certain meant the beginning of World War III.

But he wrote and performed the song before the Cuban Missile Crisis: but even last year's recent Timotheé Chalamet Hollywood movie depicts Dylan writing the song during the Crisis itself. Well why not: as characters in the (also) 1962 John Ford western The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance say: "When the legend becomes fact, print the legend."

Pop culture minutiae aside, with Iran possibly (possibly) assembling an actual nuclear bomb (even just one) in the mountain fortress of Fordow at this writing, the chances of a hard rain of nuclear-equipped ballistics rising up... and nuking Tel Aviv, is not an impossibility. Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria (and Iraq) will not like it (nor will the rest of the planet), but there are hundreds of reports that the crazed Ayatollahs, in hiding in Iran, may—in the darkness of the absence of all internet and all other information reaching them—might make a desperate, uninformed decision to preserve their hold on the government in Tehran... while earning the world's hatred and scorn.

So it's... a little scary right now. Anything could happen in the next two weeks. Israel, with America, will preserve the world from death-cult lunatics who are desperately adhering to their dead religion.... or we will see the sun rise again.

Oh, what’ll you do now, my blue-eyed son?

Oh, what’ll you do now, my darling young one?

I’m a-goin’ back out ’fore the rain starts a-fallin’
I’ll walk to the depths of the deepest black forest
Where the people are many and their hands are all empty
Where the pellets of poison are flooding their waters
Where the home in the valley meets the damp dirty prison
Where the executioner’s face is always well hidden
Where hunger is ugly, where souls are forgotten
Where black is the color, where none is the number
And I’ll tell it and think it and speak it and breathe it
And reflect it from the mountain so all souls can see it
Then I’ll stand on the ocean until I start sinkin’
But I’ll know my song well before I start singin’
And it’s a hard, it’s a hard, it’s a hard, it’s a hard
It’s a hard rain’s a-gonna fall